Justin RogersThe Detroit News
Allen Park — Welcome to unfamiliar territory.
The roadmap to the Detroit Lions' offseason is one of my favorite pieces to put together each year, and while this version will be like the others in the topics covered, it's unique because we've never written it with future expectations this high.
After falling just shy of the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance — looking like they truly belonged each step of the way — the Lions' challenge is establishing staying power near the top of the NFL's standings. It's something that eluded them in the 1990s, the last time they knocked on the Super Bowl's door, and they similarly proved unable to sustain their success in 2012 and 2015, missing the playoffs after rare, double-digit-win seasons.
On paper, these Lions are better positioned to continue in their winning ways. They're young, the team's talented core is largely under contract, they have a healthy cap situation and they're maintaining continuity with the coaching staff. With good health and the right offseason moves, it's a recipe for success.
So what does this offseason hold for the Lions? We'll go through it, step by step, to understand what lies ahead prior to the start of the 2024 season.
Roster cuts
I'll continue to repeat this annually, but this is an uncomfortable component to mapping out any offseason. Every year, there are cuts — it's part of the business — but these are human beings and we're discussing termination of employment. With that in mind, my preference is to stay away from recommendations and strictly focus on highlighting the decisions the team faces.
And, as it turns out, there aren't many conversations the Lions will need to have regarding potential cap casualties.
The list is topped by safety Tracy Walker, who is set to enter the final season of a three-year deal he signed in 2022. The former defensive captain is scheduled to carry a bloated $12.8 million cap hit in 2024. That's obviously untenable for a player the team made a healthy scratch for all three of its postseason games.
A negotiated pay cut is always an option. The team has worked out several of those under GM Brad Holmes, but the 29-year-old Walker still views himself as an NFL starter, so that avenue feels unlikely. If the sides part ways, the Lions would remain responsible for more than $7 million in dead cap, but the move would free $5.5 million in space.
Up next is defensive lineman John Cominsky. His cap hit is set to jump from $2.3 million last season to $6.2 million this year. With only $1.7 million in dead money, the Lions stand to clear $4.6 million from his release.
That's a good chunk of money, but far from an easy choice. Cominsky is versatile, durable and he epitomizes the franchise's blue-collar, grit-centric identity under coach Dan Campbell. On the other hand, Cominsky's performance dipped last season, with fewer solo tackles, fewer tackles for loss and fewer quarterback pressures, despite a similar workload.
Finally, there's defensive tackle Levi Onwuzurike. Entering the final year of his rookie contract, the former second-round pick carries a nearly $2.6 million cap figure and offers almost $1.8 million in savings with his release. After missing all of the 2022 campaign due to a back injury, he played sparingly in 16 games last year, but flashed some pass-rush potential with 10 pressures on 88 rushes.
Given what the team has invested, there's a good chance he's retained through the offseason program to determine whether he can build on last year's small successes. Still, we've seen plenty of instances with durability risks where teams choose to cut the cord prematurely rather than get left on the hook for the full salary if there's a recurrence of injury.
The only other player whose release offers significant cap savings is left tackle Taylor Decker, but it's an inconceivable scenario to discuss. The team has enough issues with its offensive line this offseason, which we'll get into shortly. They're not going to create an additional, unnecessary problem by parting with a reliable, market-rate starter.
Tags and tenders
The Lions haven't used the franchise tag since 2018, when they deployed it on edge rusher Ezekiel Ansah following a 12.0-sack season. They were rewarded with seven games and 4.0 sacks the following year.
The team has a couple of viable options this year, especially guard Jonah Jackson, but it feels unlikely. Offensive linemen are lumped together and the estimated one-year contract to franchise Jackson would be nearly $20 million.
As for restricted free agents, the Lions have six: Long snapper Scott Daly, cornerback Khalil Dorsey, cornerback Jerry Jacobs, defensive tackle Benito Jones, linebacker Anthony Pittman and tight end Brock Wright.
As a reminder, a restricted free agent is a player with three years of service time. A team has the option of placing a first-, second- or original-round tender on these players. If they do, it allows them to match any contract offer they receive from another team or get tender-level draft compensation if they choose not to match. If an undrafted player is given an original-round tender and a contract offer is not matched, there's no draft compensation.
The tenders to retain first rights of refusal aren't cheap. A first-round tender is north of $6 million, a second-round tender will cost more than $4.5 million, and even an original-round tender will be close to $3 million. Despite some quality contributors in that group of six, it feels unlikely the Lions will need to use an RFA tender. If they want any of those players back, they should be able to get it done for less money.
Finally, there are exclusive-rights free agents. Those are players with fewer than three years of service time. The Lions have another six in this category: Guard Kayode Awosika, defensive end James Houston, running back Zonovan Knight, cornerback Chase Lucas, running back Craig Reynolds and tight end Shane Zylstra.
Tendering an ERFA is a one-year, non-guaranteed contract for the league minimum. It also prohibits that player from negotiating with other teams at the start of free agency. It's a no-brainer decision for potential contributors and you should expect the Lions to extend the tag to most, if not all of that group.
In-house free agents
At this point in Holmes' tenure, we know he has a preference for retaining his own players. Well, you can't retain them all, and he has 20 set to be unrestricted free agents. From that group, some have made the decision for the GM, such as quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who opted for retirement.
Still, there will be plenty for Holmes and his staff to sift through this offseason. At the top of that list are Jackson and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, two high-level performers who figure to carry the steepest price tags. It's possible Jackson's injury-filled season depresses his market value, after he had been tracking toward $10-12 million per season. That's a tough ask for the Lions, who are going to need to find the resources to re-sign Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell and Alim McNeill.
With Gardner-Johnson, he's a bit of a wild card. His inability to find a multi-year offer as a free agent last year led to him landing Detroit, but the emergence of Brian Branch and Ifeatu Melifonwu make the need to re-sign the veteran nickel/safety less of a priority.
I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I think the open-market cost of both players will be too rich for the Lions. That said, if Jackson could be retained for something like three years, $30 million, maybe that door reopens.
Here are a handful of players I believe the Lions could prioritize re-signing and what those contracts might look like:
▶Offensive lineman Graham Glasgow—Two years, $12 million, $5.5 guaranteed
If the team doesn't re-sign Jackson, they almost have to retain Glasgow. Yes, he's older. Yes, the ceiling is lower. But he proved a lot with his 2023 performance. Plus, his versatility is invaluable, given center Frank Ragnow's increasing durability concerns.
This projection would represent an earned raise, but also reflects Glasgow would enter next season as a presumptive starter, not just competing for the job. The $6 million average value would currently be tied for 26th at the position for a player who Pro Football Focus graded as the seventh-best guard in the league in 2023.
▶Wide receiver Josh Reynolds—Two years, $8 million, $4 guaranteed
Yeah, there's a lingering sour taste in your mouth after Reynolds dropped two passes in the NFC Championship, but his worst day doesn't erase 2.5 years of positive contributions to this offense. Typically one of Goff's most reliable targets, Reynolds has racked up nearly 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns in the past two seasons, while building a reputation for enthusiastically doing thankless dirty work as a blocker.
He's coming off a deal that paid him $6 million the past two seasons. After meeting and exceeding those expectations, he's worthy of a re-up that reflects cap inflation since he last signed.
▶Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin— Two years, $6 million, $3.75 guaranteed
The special-teams standout returned to Detroit after a one-year stint in Houston and delivered one of his finest performances, tying for the league lead with 14 tackles on punt and kickoff coverage. He can do it all for those groups and also showed value as a situational defender, flexing both coverage and pass-rush skills in limited playing time.
It's not quite what Houston offered him two years ago to lure him away from Detroit, but it's almost double what he earned last year.
▶Cornerback Emmanuel Moseley—One year, $2 million, up to $4.5 million in incentives, $1 million guaranteed
After consecutive ACL injuries, there are all kinds of risks associated with Moseley. Still, there's a reason Holmes targeted him as a free agent last season. The former 49ers defensive back plays with the physicality Detroit wants in the back end, and he's also a tremendous leader off the field. That resonated through his continued contributions after suffering a season-ending injury two snaps into his Detroit debut.
Obviously, a prove-it deal makes a lot of sense, especially one with playing time and performance incentives that reward him if he rediscovers the player he once was. Assuming he stays healthy, the worst case is he's quality, low-cost depth at a position where you can never have enough.
▶Cornerback Kindle Vildor—One year, $1.5 million, $500,000 guaranteed
Lions fans might not have been thrilled with the body of work in 2023, but if you take a step back and recognize how much the team asked of the midseason addition, you should be able to appreciate the potential Vildor offers as a depth piece.
The proposed cost is a little more than the veteran minimum, and by keeping the guarantees at a half-million, there's cap flexibility to pivot if a better option emerges during the offseason program.
▶Offensive tackle Dan Skipper—One year, $1.125 million
Look, at this point, Skipper is a part of this thing. He can back up tackle, back up guard in a pinch, and offers added value as a jumbo tight end. We're not suggesting offering anything more than a veteran minimum salary, or even including guarantees, but there's a sentimental angle here after the Dallas fiasco and how the city embraced him following it that has us feeling like he deserves to remain in the fold.
Exploring the market
Last year, we pondered whether Holmes would take a home-run swing in free agency, throwing out Washington defensive tackle Daron Payne as a potential target. In the end, he got the franchise tag and parlayed that into a $90 million extension from the club.
Holmes, meanwhile, did take some bigger swings, at least compared to his first two years on the job, landing Gardner-Johnson, cornerback Cam Sutton and running back David Montgomery. The GM didn't back up the Brink's truck, but he paid market value for quality players at positions of need.
And given where the Lions are, in terms of competing for division titles and beyond, it wouldn't be surprising to see a similar approach to free agency in 2024.
So, where could the Lions look to add starting-caliber talent this year? How about either guard, cornerback, defensive tackle or edge rusher?
At guard, if you're looking at a potential Jackson replacement, Dalton Risner could be a fit. He's not a mauler in the run game, but he's been an excellent pass blocker during his five seasons. Another option might be 332-pounder Damien Lewis, a former third-round pick, who has steadily improved and will be 27 years old at the start of next season.
Along the defensive line, it would be surprising to see the Lions make a run at one of the top names, such as Chris Jones, Christian Wilkins, Justin Madubuike, Brian Burns or Josh Allen. Some of those guys could get the franchise tag, but with open-market deals likely to start close to $20 million per season, Holmes figures to be more focused on using that coin to retain some of his own pieces getting close to free agency.
DJ Reader might also be too far outside of Detroit's budget, even after suffering a season-ending quad tear, but it's fun to think about how well the soon-to-be 30-year-old interior lineman would pair with McNeill. In terms of a lower-cost, pass-rush-first interior lineman, Sheldon Rankins is intriguing, and there's familiarity with Campbell and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn from their overlapping time in New Orleans.
As for edge rushers, it's tough to find good value on the market. Some have already suggested Danielle Hunter as an option for the Lions, but after five double-digit sack seasons in Minnesota, including a career-high 16.5 last season, he's likely to command between $15-20 million.
Jonathan Greenard might be more be a more reasonable, top-end target after his breakout season in Houston last year. In 2023, he transformed into an all-around contributor, scoring 12.5 sacks and performing equally well against the run. He'd make for a formidable tandem across from Aidan Hutchinson.
To be clear, reasonable is still $13-15 million per season.
Cheaper yet could be Leonard Floyd, who Holmes knows from their time together in Los Angeles. A cap casualty for the Rams, Floyd was OK playing on a prove-it deal in Buffalo last year, so there's a chance to get value for a player with nearly 60 career sacks.
And at cornerback, the best case for adding a starting-caliber talent would come via an aging veteran who can still go, such as Steven Nelson or Stephon Gilmore — which would unite him with his brother in Detroit. Otherwise, you're looking at potentially overpaying for a No. 2, like they did with Sutton last year. Arguably the best from that crop would be Kenny Moore, who is an undersized, inside-outside option, but the type of physical tackler the Lions love in their secondary.
Building through the draft
The draft is always going to be Holmes' priority when it comes to building his roster. He's clearly established a workable formula for identifying talent and cultural fits for Detroit, resulting in a strong foundation of young talent through his three years running the show.
The Lions aren't scheduled to pick until 29th in the first round this year, but the team holds four selections in the top-100 overall picks, giving Holmes the flexibility to move around the board as he sees fit. And the same positions we noted as free-agency targets are similar to what we'd expect to see in the draft.
The Lions should particularly have some quality options at cornerback late in the first round. Among the names that could be available are Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, Kool-Aid McKinstry, Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
In terms of defensive linemen, Bralen Trice (who analysts are calling a Lions type), Byron Murphy II, Chop Robinson and Darius Robinson are a few names to monitor through the pre-draft process. We won't rule out using the first pick on a guard, either.
It's a little too early now to really dive into the depth of the class, but with those four picks in the top 100, don't count out Holmes from finding at least one first-year starter and two more rotational contributors.
Extension consideration
As it currently stands, the Lions have around $40 million in functional cap space, when you factor in holds for their current draft slots. That's obviously going to change with cuts, but also with extensions, as a number of key players are up for them this offseason.
Goff tops that list as he enters the final year of his current deal. We plan on diving deeper into what that extension could look like in the coming weeks, but even if he gets $45 million or so per year, his 2024 cap hit could easily be lowered, creating more immediate spending power.
Of course, that flexibility could simply go toward new deals for St. Brown and/or McNeill, who are also entering the final years of their contracts. St. Brown, a first-team All-Pro last season, is likely going to be seeking a top-of-market package that should easily top $20 million per season. McNeill, meanwhile, has a budding case for a pact that tops double-digit millions per after breaking out in 2023.
Recap
▶Offense: With two starting guards heading toward free agency, the biggest priority will be reinforcing the offensive line, whether through the draft or free agency. From there, expect the Lions to prioritize re-signing their own pieces to extensions, namely Goff and St. Brown.
If Reynolds and Wright are also retained, the team shouldn't need to be in the market for too many new pieces. The backfield tandem is strong, Sam LaPorta is holding down the fort at tight end, while St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Kalif Raymond round out a strong receiving corps.
While we didn't mention it up top, an upgrade at kicker, particularly one reliable from long distance, would be a quality offseason move.
▶Defense: If there's a splash to be made, the defense could use it more. The Lions have a quality, youthful core in Hutchinson and McNeill up front, a solid and deep linebacker corps, plus Kerby Joseph, Melifonwu and Branch in the back end.
A top-tier outside corner, second edge rusher or second starting defense tackle would all be welcomed pieces to continue the unit's improvement, with an eye on finishing in the top half of the league in scoring next season.
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
@Justin_Rogers
