Duggan: With their first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the New York Giants select ... (2024)

All of the pre-NFL Draft reporting and tea-leaf reading comes down to this: One final prediction for who the New York Giants will pick.

A year ago, I nailed Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks as the “obvious pick” for the Giants in the first round. As I catch my breath from that victory lap, I can’t make any assurances I’ll duplicate that accuracy this year.

But here’s my best effort to predict the Giants’ pick at No. 6, with a process of elimination to narrow the options.

• Quarterback: General manager Joe Schoen, coach Brian Daboll and the rest of the Giants’ top brass didn’t spend the spring traveling the country to scout the top quarterbacks because they were looking to boost their frequent flyer miles. The Giants operated like a team intent on taking a quarterback in the first round.

Schoen has been candid about calling teams at the top of the draft about the cost of trading up. He’s only making those calls if he’s interested in moving up for a quarterback.

But no matter how much Schoen may want a quarterback, he can’t force any of the QB-needy teams in the top three to trade with him. So the question then becomes: Is he willing to take the fourth quarterback in this class, either at No. 6 or by trading up to No. 4?

No big deal, it’s only Schoen’s legacy and the future of the franchise riding on how this plays out.

• Running back: The Giants don’t need to look far into their past to learn that using a top pick on a running back isn’t a shrewd move for a rebuilding team.

• Wide receiver: The Giants have lacked a No. 1 wide receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. was traded in 2019. That’s a long time to have the likes of Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton masquerading as No. 1 targets. It’s not a coincidence the Giants rank 31st in passing offense over the past five seasons.

The sixth pick gives the Giants the chance to finally address this prolonged weakness, as there are three receivers — Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze — widely projected as No. 1 targets at the top of this draft.

• Tight end: The Giants aren’t taking a tight end with the sixth pick in the draft. Could Georgia’s Brock Bowers enter the equation if the Giants trade back? It’s still hard to envision Schoen using a top pick on a tight end with so many needs at premium positions.

• Offensive line: The Giants have selected an offensive tackle in the top seven twice in the past four drafts. It would be a surprise if they went back to that well again, although Notre Dame’s Joe Alt is a good candidate if you’re trying to identify a dark horse pick at No. 6.

• Defensive line: The Giants have needs on the defensive line, but the value doesn’t add up with the sixth pick. This is a position that figures to be a priority on Day 2.

• Outside linebacker: The Giants took Kayvon Thibodeaux with the fifth pick in the 2022 draft, and he’s coming off an 11.5-sack season. They also traded second- and fifth-round picks to the Panthers for Brian Burns and promptly gave him a five-year, $141 million extension. They aren’t devoting another premium asset to outside linebacker considering the number of holes elsewhere on the roster.

• Inside linebacker: Inside linebacker is arguably the most stable position on the roster. Even if the Giants wanted to address the position early in the draft, there are no prospects anywhere near worthy of the sixth pick.

• Cornerback: In another year, cornerback would be a serious consideration with the sixth pick. But the quality of talent isn’t there at the position for that type of investment. Corner could become a target if the Giants trade back from No. 6.

• Safety: Like cornerback, safety is a need for the Giants, but the value doesn’t match up at No. 6.

Now that I’ve covered all of the options, I’m going to break my prediction into two categories:

• The trade up for a quarterback: It can’t be ignored that the Giants have operated for months like a team planning to draft a quarterback. The catch is none of the top four QBs are expected to be available at No. 6, so the Giants will need to trade up to land one.

That’s murky to project because it’s impossible to know if the teams ahead of them are willing to deal. If the Giants make a big swing and can find a trade partner, North Carolina’s Drake Maye sticks out as the top target.

• The best wide receiver available: If the Giants stick at No. 6, taking a wide receiver is the most likely direction. It would be impossible to pass on Harrison if he slides to No. 6, but Nabers is a more realistic option.

So my final prediction is Nabers at No. 6, with a qualifier that they’ll go with Maye if they trade up.

(Photo: Scott Winters / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)