Man City vs. Real Madrid odds, picks and predictions (2024)

Man City welcomes Real Madrid to Etihad Stadium Wednesday. Kickoff in the 2nd leg of the Champions League quarterfinal matchup is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’slines around the Man City vs. Real Madrid odds, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.

City and Real had a shootout in the 1st leg at the infamous Santiago Bernabeu. City ended with 12 shots and 6 on frame while Real had 14 shots and 5 on frame with the match ending 3-3. No team led by more than 1 goal at any point. City ended with 62% possession. The 2 sides only had a combined 1.5 expected goals in the 1st leg.

City sits 1st in the English Premier League with 73 points in 32 matches and a +44 goal differential. They won all 6 group stage games and both Round of 16 games. City has scored 3 goals in all 9 Champions League games this season.

Real sits 1st in La Liga with a 24-6-1 record. They have a +47 goal differential, mainly due to their defense, which has allowed just 20 goals in 31 matches. Real also won all 6 group stage matches (City and Real were the only teams to win all 6) and beat RB Leipzig 2-1 on aggregate in the Round of 16.

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Man City vs. Real Madrid odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:16 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Man City -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Real Madrid +390 (bet $100 to win $390) | Draw +330 (bet $100 to win $330)
• Over/Under: 3.5 (O: +134 | U: -162)

Man City vs. Real Madrid picks and predictions

Prediction

Man City 1, Real Madrid 1 (Man City advances in extra time)

Moneyline(ML)

SPRINKLE DRAW (+330).

The value is too good to pass this up. While City has been impressive in both Champions League and EPL play, Madrid has been just as strong. In the 1st round, the teams ended with 0.1 expected goals. Despite it being played in Spain, the game was very close, and it felt that way as well.

Real is the clear underdog here, and they have lost 2 games through all competitions this season, both times on the road to Atletico Madrid, a team that also made the Champions League quarterfinal. Real is too talented to get blown out and should give City all it can handle.

For this value, take DRAW (+330).

Over/Under(O/U)

BET UNDER 3.5 (-162).

These defenses are too good not to figure the other out. Despite 6 goals in the opener, there was just 11 shots on frame, so there should be less conversion in this rematch. Also, there was just 1.5 expected goals by both teams combined, suggesting if that match were replayed there likely wouldn’t be as many goals.

Real’s strength this season has been their defense as well, allowing just 0.65 goals per game. They have allowed 1.5 or fewer expected goals in all but 1 Champions League games this season. City’s dominance has largely also come on the back of their strong defense, allowing 2 or more goals in 3 of 9 Champions League matches.

Considering the season-long and Champions’ league-long trends for both sides, expect fewer goals and take UNDER 3.5 (-162). If you want to avoid the juice it might be worth taking a shot at the alternative Under 2.5 (+158) for a nice payout.

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