Sports Mole previews Saturday's Under-20 World Cup clash between Colombia Under-20s and Italy Under-20s, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Having shattered England's dreams of Under-20 World Cup stardom in the last 16, Italy Under-20s prepare for another test of their mettle against Colombia Under-20s in Saturday's quarter-final at the Estadio San Juan del Bicentenario.
The Azzurrini scraped past England 2-1 to make it this far, while their South American adversaries enjoyed a simpler stroll to the last eight with a 5-1 thrashing of Slovakia.
Match preview
Having both scored and conceded in each of their three group games versus Japan, Israel and Senegal - avoiding defeat on each occasion - Colombia continued along the same path in the last-16 affair against Slovakia, where a second-half onslaught sent them through to the quarters in some style.
After a scoreless 48 minutes, Oscar Cortes, Yaser Asprilla and Tomas Angel all made the net ripple during a merciless four-minute period, before the former and latter completed their braces for the day either side of a consolation goal from Timotej Jambor.
As a result, a second successive quarter-final appearance now awaits Hector Cardenas's men, who fell at this hurdle to eventual winners Ukraine in the 2019 tournament - a good omen for Italy if they can make lightning strike twice against the Tricolor.
Cardenas's men enter the quarters having suffered just one defeat from their last 10 matches in all tournaments, but only once have Colombia managed to make it further than the last eight - ending up in third place in the 2003 Under-20 World Cup, beating Argentina 2-1 in the bronze medal match.
With back-to-back semi-final appearances to their name, Italy also have previous when it comes to competing for the final spot on the podium, and the Azzurrini had one of their England-based players to thank for their nervy success over the Three Lions in the last 16.
A divine volley from the appropriately-named Alfie Devine cancelled out Tommaso Baldanzi's opening goal on Wednesday night, but with 87 minutes on the clock, Chelsea's Cesare Casadei - who will soon be making acquaintances with England's own proteges - found the top corner with a rocket of a penalty after Jarell Quansah's controversial handball.
By seeing off the Three Lions, Italy continued their praiseworthy run of reaching the quarter-finals in all of their Under-20 World Cup appearances since 1987 - although the Azzurrini have failed to qualify for several tournaments since then - and they managed to advance to the semis in both 2017 and 2019.
As is the case with Colombia, Italy also have just the one loss to show from their most recent 10 games heading into Saturday's tie, which will be their second with the Tricolor at Under-20 level; the South American nation ran out 2-0 winners during the group stage of the 2005 World Cup.
Colombia Under-20s Under 20 World Cup form:
- W
- W
- D
- W
Colombia Under-20s form (all competitions):
- L
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
Italy Under-20s Under-20 World Cup form:
- W
- L
- W
- W
Italy Under-20s form (all competitions):
- D
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
Team News
Aside from Jambor's late effort for Slovakia, Colombia enjoyed a near-perfect evening in their last-16 encounter, with no players incurring suspensions or picking up injuries in San Juan.
Unless fatigue forces his hand, Cardenas should certainly name an identical XI from Wednesday's affair, as Watford starlet Asprilla continues in the number 10 role for the Tricolor.
As for the Italians, manager Carmine Nunziata will have centre-back Daniele Ghilardi back from a ban in time for Saturday's game, a timely return after his deputy Alessandro Fontanarosa was booked for diving against England.
Ghilardi should immediately push Fontanarosa down to the bench in what may be the only alteration from Wednesday's game, although Samuel Giovane and Simone Pafundi are among those capable of freshening up the squad.
Casadei's penalty against England saw him maintain his position at the top of the Under-20 World Cup scoring charts with five goals - one more than Colombia's Cortes and Brazil's Marcos Leonardo - and the Blues youngster will wear the captain's armband for the Azzurrini once again.
Colombia Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Marquinez; Ocampo, Mantilla, Alvarez, Salazar; Puerta, Torres; Manyoma, Asprilla, Cortes; Angel
Italy Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Desplanches; Zanotti, Guarino, Ghilardi, Turicchia; Casadei, Faticanti, Prati; Baldanzi; Ambrosino, Esposito
We say: Colombia Under-20s 2-2 Italy Under-20s (a.e.t, Italy to win on penalties)
Italy will prove to be much sterner opposition than Slovakia were for Colombia, but the Tricolor's consistency in front of goal should cancel out any defensive lapses in concentration.
The Azzurrini also required a healthy dose of VAR controversy to get over the line against England, and a shootout from 12 yards may be required to separate the two sides, where Italy can emulate their seniors' feats from Euro 2020 to progress.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Italy Under-20s win with a probability of 43.43%. A win for Colombia Under-20s has a probability of 29.84% and a draw has a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy Under-20s win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Colombia Under-20s win is 1-0 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.68%).
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