Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Nice and Brest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
High-flying Nice welcome Brest to the Allianz Riviera on Saturday evening in the latest round of Ligue 1 games.
While the hosts are challenging near the top of the table, their opponents are struggling down in the relegation zone, sat 19th with just four points to show for their efforts so far.
Match preview
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New manager Christophe Galtier has largely brought his title-winning form with him to the Cote d'Azur, since his move from reigning champions Lille during the summer.
His side are sitting pretty, fourth in the standings with a game in hand on second-placed Lens, and have lost just one game from seven this season.
That came at the hands of Lorient last Wednesday, when Thomas Monconduit curled in the only goal of the game after a well-worked set-piece in the 23rd minute.
Les Aiglons bounced back, though, returning to winning ways at the weekend as they condemned Saint-Etienne to a fifth consecutive defeat, thanks to goals from Amine Gouiri, Calvin Stengs and Andy Delort.
They may sit 11 points behind leaders Paris Saint-Germain, but this season is already a clear improvement on recent years - having finished the previous four campaigns eighth, seventh, sixth and ninth - which is exactly what their title-winning manager was brought in to do.
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Brest, on the other hand, look likely to face another battle against the drop this campaign, having avoided the relegation playoff last season by a single point.
They are still yet to win this term and suffered their fourth loss of the season on Sunday when they hosted the bottom side heading into the game - Metz.
Both teams came into the match winless and, with home advantage, the match provided Les Pirates their best chance yet to pick up three points, but they could only conjure up enough for a 2-1 defeat, despite Romain Faivre's equaliser from the penalty spot.
Head coach Michel Der Zakarian also took over in the summer and will be aware that the pressure will only continue to mount until he picks up his first victory.
The area that the Armenian most needs to work on is clear, at least - the defence, which has let in 16 goals so far this season and is yet to manage a clean sheet.
Nice Ligue 1 form:
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
Brest Ligue 1 form:
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
Team News
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Nice right-back Youcef Atal will miss out due to an accumulation of bookings, with Jordan Lotomba expected to replace him for this game.
Alexis Claude Maurice is not expected to start just yet, despite being fit enough for a place on the bench last weekend, but Jean-Clair Todibo is set to be recalled to the starting XI on Saturday after making a substitute appearance last time out.
Delort and Gouiri will be looking to score in consecutive matches as they continue to lead the line in a 4-4-2 formation.
Brest will also have to do without a suspended player, in the shape of central defender Lilian Brassier and, with Jere Uronen not fit to deputise, Jean-Kevin Duverne may be called upon to play in his natural central role.
Romain del Castillo is fit again and so is an option in attack for the visitors.
Nice possible starting lineup:
Benitez; Lotomba, Todibo, Dante, Bard; Stengs, Rosario, Lemina, Kamara; Delort, Gouiri
Brest possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Pierre-Gabriel, Chardonnet, Duverne, Uronen; Agoume, M'bock; Faivre, Honorat, Cardona; Mounie
We say: Nice 3-1 Brest
Anything but a comfortable victory for Nice here would be a surprise. Brest are on a winless run of 10 games in all competitions, and the only victory in their last 19 matches came against minnows Stade Plabennecois during a friendly back in July.
Top tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 48.63%. A win for Brest had a probability of 26.3% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest Brest win was 0-1 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nice would win this match.
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