Who would you rather be: The Dallas Cowboys or San Francisco 49ers? (2024)

By Jon Machota, David Lombardi and Matt Barrows

Editor’s note:This is part 4 of a six-part series comparing and contrasting two NFL teams on similar trajectories. Today, we break down the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers. Which team can knock the Philadelphia Eagles off the NFC perch this season and which team is in the best position to keep contending the next three years? Vote for your pick in the poll at the end of the story. (Prior stories in the series: New York Jets-Miami Dolphins, New York Giants-Minnesota Vikings;Detroit Lions-Jacksonville Jaguars.)

It’s always interesting when the Cowboys and 49ers are in the mix. The longtime rivals have met nine times in the playoffs, including the past two seasons, and six times in the NFC Championship Game. The 49ers have won those past two postseason battles on their way to the NFC title game — a round they’ve reached three times in the past four seasons. The Cowboys haven’t played for an NFC championship since their last Super Bowl-winning season in 1995.

The rivalry added another layer last week when the 49ers traded Trey Lance — the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft — to the Cowboys for a fourth-round pick. Lance was merely going to be San Francisco’s No. 3 quarterback and that’s also where he’ll start on Dallas’ depth chart. He’s not expected to play much of a role on this year’s team, but could he make an impact in the future?

Both of these teams are poised for another playoff run and maybe they’ll meet for a third straight postseason, just like they did when they played each other in three straight NFC Championship games from 1992 to ’94. The winners of each of those games went on to win the Super Bowl, but neither team has hoisted a Lombardi Trophy since those mid-90s dynasty teams.

Can one of these teams, with a dominant defense and a proficient offense, end that drought? And which team is better set up to sustain its success for the next three seasons? Here’s a closer look at their trajectories:

Quarterback

Cowboys

Turnovers were never an issue for Dak Prescott before last season. The front office deserves some blame for not adequately replacing Pro Bowl WR Amari Cooper last season. But they traded for veteran WR Brandin Cooks in March and that should be an immediate upgrade to the position. With head coach Mike McCarthy now calling offensive plays, the Cowboys fully expect Prescott to bounce back. For Dallas to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in 28 years, he must be better than he was a year ago.

Now that Aaron Rodgers is no longer in Green Bay, Prescott is the NFL’s longest-tenured QB. He has two career playoff wins in his seven seasons. With a loaded roster on both sides of the ball, this might be Prescott’s best opportunity to make a deep playoff run. Cooper Rush is the backup and recently added Lance is No. 3. But the QB position in Dallas runs through Prescott this year and most likely well into the future.

49ers

The 49ers enjoyed very good quarterback play in 2022 from Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy, but both ended the season hurt. Garoppolo is now gone and Purdy is healthy again as the starter, with Sam Darnold the No. 2. Maintaining health seems to be the main question for the 49ers here.

Healthy 49ers quarterbacks have been notably efficient working with coach Kyle Shanahan. Garoppolo finished ranked No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) last season and Purdy’s DVOA clip would’ve ranked No. 5 among qualifying quarterbacks. The 49ers have built an efficient offensive machine. They count on their quarterback to be a distributor — Purdy called himself a “point guard” last season — and the attack hums when that position executes. The 49ers have many reasons to believe that Purdy can keep the line moving in 2023. Beyond that, they liked how well Darnold avoided giveaways over training camp.

Non-QB talent

Cowboys

This is arguably the Cowboys’ best roster since their loaded teams of the 1990s. The 2007 team, which had 13 Pro Bowlers, is the only other one in contention since Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin were still playing. This year’s Cowboys team could end up with double-digit Pro Bowlers after having eight make it a year ago. The biggest question is the depth on the offensive line. There are quality offensive skill players around Prescott, like CeeDee Lamb, Cooks, Michael Gallup and Tony Pollard. The starting offensive line should be a strength as long as they can stay healthy.

Defensively, they have a chance to be the NFL’s best. Everything starts with Micah Parsons, the favorite to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. The edge rushing rotation should be as good as any in the league. The secondary is Dallas’ best in a long time, with quality depth at cornerback and safety. Maybe most important is that the defense has Dan Quinn calling the shots for a third consecutive season.

49ers

George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey have gone over 1,000 receiving yards previously and, based on how he was used in training camp, McCaffrey has a shot at being the NFL’s first two-time 1,000/1,000-yard gainer. That’s why the 49ers don’t necessarily need an All-Pro at quarterback but someone who throws quickly and allows targets to gain yards after the catch, something Purdy does well.

Defensively, the team has 2022 Pro Bowlers at every level: Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and safety Talanoa Hufanga. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, a free-agent addition, seems to have a good shot at that honor this season. So does cornerback Charvarius Ward, who was excellent during stretches a year ago and who may get to show off his man-coverage skills more often this season.

Key decision-makers

Cowboys

For as much as Jerry Jones is criticized for being one of the NFL’s worst general managers, the Cowboys have a strong group of decision-makers. Jones gets the final say, but executive vice president Stephen Jones, vice president of player personnel Will McClay and McCarthy have put together an excellent roster over the last few years that should be one of the NFC’s best for years to come. The Cowboys haven’t been significantly involved in free agency in a decade. They’ve built the majority of the roster through the draft, where they have been one of the NFL’s best.

McCarthy probably doesn’t get enough credit as head coach. He is coming off leading the franchise to consecutive double-digit win seasons for the first time since 1996. It’s also been impressive how he has led the team in games when they haven’t had their franchise QB. The Cowboys have gone 5-1 with Rush starting over the last two seasons.

49ers

The 49ers haven’t had a first-round pick the last two years … and maybe that’s a good thing. They’ve had several whiffs, including Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster and their most spectacular miss of all, Lance. Meanwhile, the team’s top pick in 2020, defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, has made little impact and likely will leave in free agency in March.

Shanahan and general manager John Lynch, however, have been able to mask those mistakes later in the draft. Starters like Kittle, Purdy, Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw and Deommodore Lenoir were taken in the fifth round or later. They’ve also orchestrated high-impact trades including for Garoppolo, Williams and McCaffrey. San Francisco has been a place where established veterans like Williams and McCaffrey have wanted to play.

The Shanahan-Lynch tree also must be noted. Since they started working together in 2017, three of Lynch’s lieutenants — Martin Mayhew, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Ran Carthon — have been hired as general managers. Former Shanahan assistants in heading coaching roles: Robert Saleh, Mike McDaniel and DeMeco Ryans. The zone-blocking system Shanahan runs was unique in 2017. Seven seasons later, it’s a lot more common, which speaks to how he’s held by his peers.

Resources/paths to improve

Cowboys

The Cowboys have done the most damage in the draft when they’ve had a top-20 pick. For a franchise built around a “draft-and-develop” strategy, those years have been huge. They’re hoping to have consistent double-digit win seasons like McCarthy did in Green Bay. Now, that would mean a lot of first-round picks outside of the top 20, but that’s where signing their own comes in. Not being a major player in free agency, they must re-sign the most important franchise pieces. They’ve taken care of Prescott in the past and plan to do so again soon. They recently signed Trevon Diggs to an extension and are expected to do the same with Parsons and Lamb. The key here is paying the right players. They had a bad 16-day stretch before the start of the 2019 season when they gave significant contract extensions to Jaylon Smith, La’el Collins and Ezekiel Elliott. All three are no longer on the roster. It will also be important to continue finding affordable free agents that can play notable roles.

49ers

Purdy has three seasons left on his very affordable rookie deal. Still, the 49ers are in a tight cap situation, especially when projecting ahead to 2024. With Bosa’s expected megadeal not yet on the books, the 49ers already have over $270 million in 2024 liabilities. The 49ers have maximized the efficiency of less valuable capital with mid- to late-round picks and big trades for Williams and McCaffrey, but the need to pay so many of their own players has and will force them to be creative.

The 49ers credit the cohesion that they’ve built between their coaching staff and personnel department for their late-round draft success and if they continue adhering to it, they should be able to sustain a strong roster by finding and developing affordable talent at the margins. The goal is a self-perpetuating cycle of compensatory draft pick generation, and that’s a cost-effective way to keep a team good.

The start of the NFL season is a little more than a week away. It's time we identify the true contenders across the league.@amock419 details why each team will or won't win the Super Bowl.https://t.co/3Hkq3MpDsf

— The Athletic NFL (@TheAthleticNFL) August 30, 2023

Other considerations

Cowboys

At times, the Cowboys have been a little too conservative when it comes to making a move that could potentially put the roster over the top. That wasn’t the case this offseason. During a six-day period in March, Dallas traded a fifth-round pick for Stephon Gilmore and fifth- and sixth-round picks for Cooks. The Cowboys insisted this was nothing out of the ordinary, that they were just improving their roster when opportunities presented themselves. But it was more aggressive than normal. Cooks and Gilmore have exceeded expectations since they have arrived, on the field and in the locker room. Perhaps their impact could slightly change Dallas’ approach going forward. That type of aggressive roster building has proved to make a difference the last three years for the teams that have reached the Super Bowl from the NFC, the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the 2021 Los Angeles Rams and the 2022 Philadelphia Eagles.

49ers

Can the 49ers field enough offensive line depth to make themselves truly perennial contenders? That ability will be tested this year, as the departures of right tackle Mike McGlinchey and sixth man Daniel Brunskill in free agency are set to test the 49ers’ developmental abilities up front. Replenishing the line will likely turn into an annual challenge for the 49ers, but it’s a necessary one to conquer because title bids are marathons. The 49ers played 20 games in each of the past two seasons, and both of those campaigns required depth pieces to start by the end of the run. For all the star power the 49ers have surrounding Purdy, it’s important to never forget how important the margins are to success. And for the 49ers, the most concerning margin lies with what’s beyond their starting five up front. If the 49ers establish a consistent restocking formula for the front, they should remain in the mix for the foreseeable future. This 2023 season will tell us a lot about their long-term prospects.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos: Thearon W. Henderson, Michael Owens / Getty Images)

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