Alex Elfering · Follow
9 min read · Dec 9, 2018
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The Big 10 is the oldest football conference in the United States — anchored by original teams Purdue, Wisconsin, Chicago, Michigan, Northwestern and Illinois in 1895. The group later added Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa, and saw the departure of Chicago by 1946. However, it was not for nearly 40 years until the Big Ten grew with the addition of Penn State.
Between 2011 and 2014, the conference grew to fourteen teams with the addition of Nebraska in 2011, and Rutgers and Maryland in 2014, making the Big Ten the second-largest conference between the Atlantic Coast Conference.
I calculated the ELO ratings of each college football team since 1869 and decided to focus my analysis of each school on the last twenty-five years given how far the sport has evolved as time went on. An average ELO rating is 1500 points and the scores regress back to 1500 by one-third to account for staffing changes and roster adjustments. The dashboard examining team rankings can be found here.
In 2001, the Illinois “Fighting Illini” surprised the conference by posting one of its most energetic performances in the last 25 years and winning the Big Ten outright. Head Coach Rod Turner joined the team in 1997, but until 2001 Illinois had compiled a 16–29 record and one bowl game. The Illini swept the conference in 2001 — outscoring Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin by 5, 12 points, 7 points, respectively. Illinois peaked towards the conclusion of the season with an ELO rating of 1708 points before falling to LSU in the Sugar Bowl.
Since then, the team has struggled to repeat the success of its title-winning season and has worked through three coaches while searching for a way back to the top. This past season saw the Illini score a combined 312 points, just shy of the 337 total points scored in 2014, but gave up 473 points which proved decisive in its ultimate 4–8 performance. Current HC Lovie Smith started calling the defensive calls after Hardy Nickerson, the previous defensive coordinator, resigned mid-season and has not mentioned any new candidates for the role yet. A stronger defense will be crucial and part of the plan for the Fighting Illini to become competitive in the Big Ten again.
Where Illinois has yet to win a conference title in 17 years, basketball-crazed Indiana’s drought is even more extensive. The last Hoosier football team to win at least a share of the title was in 1967 when the team finished 9–2 and ranked fourth in the nation. In the last 25 years, Indiana has often fallen below average and has yet to beat its peak of 1615 ELO rating points at the beginning of the 1994 season. The team has been invited to four bowl games but has lost each one.
In 1998, long-time coach Hayden Fry retired after Iowa finished 3–8 — its second-worst record in the last twenty-five years. Although many in Iowa preferred Bob Stoops, former Offensive Coordinator Kirk Ferentz returned to Iowa City and rebuilt the program from the ground up.
Three years into his tenure, Ferentz led the Hawkeyes to its highest ELO rating of 1741 points and a conference title, then led the team into another championship title in 2004. The program has ebbed and flowed with a 4–8 record in 2012 and 7–6 in 2014, but the Hawkeyes hope to finish 9–5 when they meet Mississippi State later this month.
Sometimes moving conferences does not mean immediate success for sports teams. In 2012, Maryland’s Board of Regents voted to withdraw from the ACC and relocate to the Big Ten — a move that was approved and went into effect in 2014. Before the move, Maryland was competitive in the ACC with a record ELO rating of 1733 points and a 10–3 record in 2003 and posted decent seasons in the years afterward. Since the Big Ten, Maryland has had one winning season at 7–6 and been 0–2 in bowl games.
For all of Michigan’s stumbling in the last ten years under Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke, the Wolverine’s appear to be picking up speed under Jim Harbaugh, former alumni, and quarterback, who took the reins of the program in 2015. Michigan dominated in the Big Ten during the 90s and reached its highest ELO rating in the last 25 five years with an undefeated season in 1997 at 1826 points under Lloyd Carr. Under Harbaugh, Michigan has improved and has frequently reached the mid-to-high 1700s in rating points. However, the Wolverine’s stumbling against Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan State at times has slowed the team’s climb back to the top.
In 2015, №7 ranked Michigan State went head-to-head with fellow in-state rival №12 ranked Michigan in Ann Arbor for one of the strangest endings of the season. Late in the fourth quarter as time was running out, Michigan, leading 23–21 needed to punt the ball to seal the game. However, a mishandled snap allowed the Spartans to seize the ball and run a 38-yard touchdown to win 27–23. Despite a similar upset by Nebraska in the following game, the Spartan’s ELO rating reached 1810 points after winning the Big Ten Championship over Iowa before Alabama shut them out in the playoff.
Similar to Indiana, Minnesota has not seen a conference title since the 1967 season, or even a National Title since the 1960 season. In modern times, Minnesota’s ELO rating peaked at 1675 points at the beginning of the 2004 season and has not won 10 games in a season since 2003. The 2018 season marked a change in momentum for the Gophers with a dominant win over the Wisconsin Badgers in Madison, marking the first time since 2003 that Minnesota won such a game. The model forecasted Wisconsin a 6 in 7 favorite this year, but Minnesota played a stronger game, rebounding its ELO rating in the process.
In twenty-five years, Nebraska has won three National Titles and four Conference titles in the Big 8 and Big 12. A 38 point win over Florida in the 1995 National Championship put the Huskers over 1900 ELO rating points and its strongest record yet. Since then, the Huskers have gone through five coaches and only one, Tom Osborne, retired in his own right from the program at the end of 1997. The other four coaches were fired either as a result of losing seasons or dramatic losses.
The result of turnover and losing seasons have seen Nebraska’s ELO fall over time, and it reached its lowest point in twenty-five years under current coach Scott Frost. Frost went 0–6 mid-season before ending 4–8 and back to where the Huskers finished when Riley was fired in 2017.
Head Coach Gary Barnett accomplished something in 1995 and 1996 that Northwestern had never done — claim a conference title each year and win nine and ten games in ’95 and ’96, respectively, a first for the school. The result sent the Wildcats’ ELO rating to 1688 points and strong national rankings. After Barnett resigned to coach Colorado, Northwestern’s climb back to the top has been slow. The 2017 Northwestern team accomplished an FBS record winning three consecutive games in overtime, and this season has scored a combined 308 points while allowing 305 points.
In the last 25 years, Ohio State may not have won a conference championship or a National Title every year, but the Buckeyes continually post strong performances relative to the average team. The 2014 Buckeyes, the most recent National Championship team, scored a combined 672 points to 330 scored by their opponents and reached an ELO of 1886 points. When Ohio State does lose, it’s often in a devastating blow that sends their ELO rating down such as a shutout to Clemson in the 2016 playoff, a 31 point loss to Iowa in 2017 and a 29 point loss to Purdue in 2018. Despite these setbacks, Ohio State has not been outscored combined by opponents.
When questioned about losing to Ohio State this season, Head Coach James Franklin admitted that Penn State was “not an elite program yet.” Even before Joe Paterno was fired in 2011 in the wake of the Sandusky scandal, Penn State reached a peak in 2008 and began to slide in ELO ratings leading to 2011. Penn State achieved a record ELO rating of 1820 points in 1994 — the team that Nebraska edged out to become national champions. Franklin has turned the Nittany Lions around with a 2016 Big Ten Championship and increasing the team’s ELO rating to the mid-to-lower 1700s.
After winning nine games between 2013 and 2016, Jeff Brohm’s rebuilding of Purdue has posted the programs first winning season in 2016 since 2017, and the Boilermaker’s first win over a top 5 team in 2018 for the first time since 1984 (ironically, both times were against Ohio State). The result put the Boilermakers over 1600 ELO rating points — a first since 2007. Purdue is not at the level of the 2003 and 2004 teams that peaked at 1700 points, or the 2000 season that led to a share of the Big Ten title, but it is a substantial turnaround that put a spotlight on Brohm. Time will tell whether these improvements stand in the future.
As Rutgers went head-to-head with Kansas this season, fans took to Twitter to joke about both teams fighting to avoid being the worst of the worst. Never mind that Kansas defeated the Scarlet Knights in a landslide — Rutgers’ 1–11 season makes it difficult to remember that over the last 25 years, there have been rays of light in the program. The 2006 Scarlett Knights qualified for their third bowl game, but recorded their first win in a bowl game in school history — finishing 11–2 and with an ELO rating close to 1700 points. Since joining the Big Ten, however, Rutgers has qualified for one bowl game but lost 42 games.
The 2017 Wisconsin Badgers’ performance was the third season that posted one loss, the first was in 1993 and the second in 1998 with a 10–1–1 and 11–1 record, respectively. But the 2017 team set a record with an ELO rating of 1841 points, scoring a combined 473 points and allowing a combined 173 points. Although the following season in 2018 fell short after the Badgers were ranked in the top 10 in preseason polls, making a bowl game 23 out of 25 times since 1993 still is an impressive run.
Corrections:
Data was pulled from Sports-Reference.com, and the idea for these calculations was inspired by FiveThirtyEight. My first article was found here.
Northwestern was excluded from list of charter members of the conference and has since been added.
